Go For It
-- Expected win probabilitySBU Econ · NFL Decision Lab
Fourth Down Decision Simulator
A fast, student-friendly approximation for deciding whether to go for it, kick, or punt. Built from recent NFL play-by-play and designed for standard regulation situations.
Data window: 2020-2025
Cloudflare-friendly static prototype
Inputs
Game State
How To Read This
Positive score differential means the offense is ahead. Field position is measured as yards remaining to the end zone, so lower numbers mean the offense is closer to scoring.
Game line is from the offense's perspective: negative means the offense was favored pregame, positive means the offense was the underdog. Game total is the pregame over/under.
Recommendation
Choose an option
Verdict
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Edge
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Kick Distance
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Kick Field Goal
-- Expected win probabilityPunt
-- Expected win probabilityModel Assumptions
- Conversion Probability
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- Field Goal Probability
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- Expected Opponent Start After Punt
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- Game Line Input
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- Game Total Input
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