State of US Politics — Polymarket Intelligence Report

Dominant Theme

The Iran Conflict

The US-Israeli military campaign against Iran is the single largest cluster of prediction market activity. Over $100M in volume is concentrated on conflict timelines, regime change, and the Strait of Hormuz.

31%

Ceasefire by Mar 31

34%

Iranian Regime Falls Before 2027

14%

US Invades Iran by Mar 31

48%

Trump Ends Ops by Mar 31

Conflict Timeline Probabilities

Markets are pricing a roughly 1-in-3 chance the conflict winds down by end of March, but significant uncertainty around regime change and escalation persists through summer.

By March 15

US-Iran Ceasefire: 6%

Near-term resolution seen as very unlikely. Active strikes ongoing.

By March 31

Iranian Regime Falls: 6% • Ceasefire: 31% • Conflict Ends: 29%

Markets split on whether fighting de-escalates within weeks.

By April 30

Iranian Regime Falls: 13%

Gradual increase in regime change probability over time.

By June 30

Iranian Regime Falls: 24%

Roughly 1-in-4 chance of regime change by mid-year.

Before 2027

Iranian Regime Falls: 34%

The market's longer-horizon bet on fundamental change in Iran.

Strait of Hormuz

Iran has already begun laying mines near the Strait of Hormuz. Markets price the strait as effectively closed — with 100% probability by March 31. Trump has threatened strikes "twenty times harder" if oil flows are blocked. The US struck Iranian mine-laying vessels on March 10. ($36M volume)

Another Country Strikes Iran by Mar 31

$2M

Yes

29%

US Forces Enter Iran by Mar 31

$13M

Yes

31%

Iran Strikes Israel on Mar 10

$14M

Yes

86%

Congress Passes Iran War Powers Resolution by Mar 31

$37K

Yes

3%

Looking Ahead

2028 Presidential Race

Over $1.5B in combined volume on the 2028 race already. JD Vance leads the Republican field while Gavin Newsom is the Democratic frontrunner — but wide-open fields mean high uncertainty.

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance holds a slim 3-point lead over Gavin Newsom in the overall presidential market. The $385M volume signals serious trader engagement this far out.

$385M Volume

JD Vance (R)

21%

Gavin Newsom (D)

18%

Marco Rubio (R)

10%

AOC (D)

6%

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

$374M

JD Vance

39%

Marco Rubio

27%

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

$796M

Gavin Newsom

25%

AOC

9%

November 2026

2026 Midterm Elections

Democrats are heavy favorites to flip the House (85%) while the Senate remains a near coin-flip. A Democratic sweep is priced at 46% — a dramatic shift in the political landscape if realized.

85%

Dems Win House

54%

GOP Holds Senate

46%

Democratic Sweep

3%

GOP Trifecta + Supermajority

Expected Balance of Power

The House is trending strongly Democratic while the Senate remains competitive. The most likely scenario is a split Congress with Dems controlling the House and the GOP narrowly holding the Senate.

House of Representatives

D 85%

R 16%

Democrats favored Republicans

Senate

D 47%

R 54%

Democrats Republicans slight edge

Key Senate Races

Texas Senate

$119K

Republican

62%

Democrat

39%

Georgia Senate

$18K

Democrat

81%

Republican

19%

Montana Senate

Republican

79%

Colorado Senate

Democrat

92%

Nebraska Senate

$67K

Republican

66%

Key Governor Races

Michigan Governor

$165K

Democrat

68%

Republican

22%

Wisconsin Governor

$64K

Democrat

79%

Republican

18%

Oregon Governor

$10K

Democrat

82%

California Governor

$1M

Eric Swalwell

54%

Matt Mahan

14%

The White House

Executive Branch & Trump Presidency

Trump's approval sits around 43% in traditional polls (37% in Quinnipiac). Markets price him firmly in office through 2026, but cabinet turnover is seen as near-certain.

43%

Approval (RCP Avg)

1%

Trump Out by Mar 31

5%

Impeached by Jun 30

90%

Cabinet Exit by Mar 31

Trump Approval Markets

Approval Up This Week

5%

Hits 40% in 2026

95%

Hits 44% High

29%

Impeached by End 2026

13%

Cabinet Stability

Markets expect at least one cabinet departure by end of March (90%). Lori Chavez-DeRemer (Labor) is seen as most likely to leave.

Chavez-DeRemer

36%

Pam Bondi

10%

Pete Hegseth

4%

Howard Lutnick

4%

Federal Reserve

Kevin Warsh is virtually certain to be confirmed as Fed Chair (94%). The March Fed decision is expected to be a pause (no rate change). The market prices three consecutive pauses through June at 55%. ($307M volume on the March decision alone.)

Economic Policy

Trade War & Tariffs

The 10% blanket tariff is expected to remain in place. China tariffs have come down significantly from their 2025 highs. Markets see Trump visiting China soon — and potential trade deals later.

93%

10% Blanket Tariff on Mar 31

35%

China Rate 5-15% on Mar 31

65%

Trump Visits China by Mar 31

29%

Court Forces Tariff Refund

Trade Deal Prospects Before 2027

Mexico and India are seen as the most likely candidates for new US trade agreements. The market gives low odds to congressional tariff legislation — executive action dominates.

Mexico Deal

28%

India Deal

26%

Congress Passes Tariffs by Mar 31

2%

Cut Trade w/ Spain

2%

Capitol Hill & The Courts

Legislation & Legal

Congress is largely gridlocked. Major legislation has low passage probabilities. Courts are being watched for tariff challenges and Epstein-related developments.

Legislation Tracker

Bill / Action	Probability
SAVE America Act (H.R. 7296) by Jun 30	29%
SAVE Act (H.R. 22) Signed in 2026	15%
DHS Shutdown Ends by Mar 12-15	2%
McConnell Steps Down Early	19%
Trump Suspends Entry for More Countries	69%

Courts & Legal

Case / Action	Probability
Court Forces Tariff Refund	29%
Anyone Charged Over Epstein Disclosures	29%
Jerome Powell Federally Charged by Jun 30	4%
ICE Shooter Charged by Mar 31	6%
SCOTUS Accepts Sports Contract Case	16% by Jul

DHS Shutdown

The DHS is currently in a partial shutdown. Markets expect it to last through mid-to-late March. Traders also price an 85% chance of a broader government shutdown coinciding with Democrats winning the House in 2026 — suggesting the shutdown dynamic strengthens the Democratic hand.

Money & Markets

Economy, Crypto & Foreign Policy

Recession fears persist, crypto regulation is evolving, and the Ukraine conflict remains frozen — with markets giving low odds to a near-term ceasefire.

29%

US Recession by End 2026

31%

US Bitcoin Reserve Before 2027

2%

Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Mar 31

6%

US Defaults on Debt by 2027

Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Timeline

$24M

By Mar 31

2%

By Apr 30

8%

By Jun 30

19%

By End 2026

42%

Crypto & Digital Assets

US Bitcoin Reserve

31%

US Ethereum Reserve

13%

New Country Buys BTC

79%

Fiscal & Debt

Debt Hits $39T

99%

Debt Rating Downgrade

30%

US Defaults by 2027

6%

Immigration

400-500K Deported

30%

More Entry Bans

69%

Primary Season

State Primaries

Active primary markets are shaping the candidate fields for November. Texas leads in volume with the Cornyn vs. Paxton GOP showdown.

Texas GOP Senate Primary

$9M

John Cornyn

64%

Ken Paxton

34%

Maine Dem Senate Primary

$2M

Graham Platner

77%

Janet Mills

24%

Illinois Dem Senate Primary

$176K

Krishnamoorthi

64%

Stratton

37%

Georgia GOP Governor Primary

$117K

Rick Jackson

53%

Burt Jones

33%